Day Trading Simulation Calculator

How to Use

The Day Trading Simulation Calculator helps you simulate the liklihood you lose or make money, or blow an account entirely. Follow the steps below to use the calculator effectively:

1. Account Size ($): Enter the initial amount of money in your trading account. This value will be used as the starting point for all simulations.
2. Max Risk per Trade (%): Adjust the slider to set the maximum percentage of your account that you are willing to risk on each trade. This value determines the position size for each trade based on the target loss.
3. Target Profit per Trade (%): Adjust the slider to set the target profit percentage for each trade. This value represents the expected return from a successful trade. This slider is limited to an upside of 1,000%. While we recongize that some trades may go more than 1,000%, it is unlikely that you are building a strategy that is based around something larger than a consistent 10 bagger. If you are, you can artificially simulate this by dividing both the win % and the loss % by the same factor. For example, if you want to see what it would look like with a 1,500% win and 100% loss - then instead set the calculator to a 500% win and a 33% loss. This will fudge the numbers a bit but will still generally work for the purposes of this day trading calculator.
4. Target Loss per Trade (%): Adjust the slider to set the target loss percentage for each trade. This value represents the expected loss on a position from an unsuccessful trade, not the overall loss on the account. For example, if your trade costs $100 to enter, and you set this loss to 20%, it will assume that the trade will be sold at a 20% loss for $80. We recognize that some trades may lose more than 100% (such as shorting a stock or option wiht out a protective hedge) however this calculator is limited to assuming a 100% loss on a trade.
5. Win Rate (%): Adjust the slider to set the win rate, which is the percentage of trades you expect to be successful. This value influences the probability of winning or losing each trade in the simulations.
6. Number of Simulations: Adjust the slider to set the number of simulations you want to run. Each simulation represents a different sequence of trades based on the input parameters. The more simulations run, the more statistically significant the results. However, at max simulations, it may take several seconds to display results.
7. Number of Trades Per Simulation: Adjust the slider to set the number of trades to be included in each simulation. We recomed you set this to the approximate number of trades you will take in a year.
8. Calculate: Click the "Calculate" button to run the simulations. The results will be displayed in the chart and the table below the inputs.

Understanding the Results

Once the simulations are complete, the results will be displayed in two sections: a chart and a table.

Chart

The chart shows the account value over the specified number of trades for each simulation. Each line represents a different simulation.

Table

The table displays detailed results for each simulation:

• Simulation Number: The identifier for each simulation.
• End Amount: The final account value at the end of the simulation.
• End PNL $: The total profit or loss in dollars at the end of the simulation.
• End PNL %: The total profit or loss in percentage at the end of the simulation. This column is color-coded:
  • Dark Red: Account went bust (down 80% from original account size).
  • Light Red: Small loss (negative, but not bust yet).
  • Light Green: Small profit (0% to 30%).
  • Dark Green: Big profit (greater than 30%).

Summary

Above the table, the following summary statistics are displayed:

• Percent Chance of Bust: The percentage of simulations where the account went bust.
• Percent Chance of Small Loss: The percentage of simulations with a small loss.
• Percent Chance of Small Profit: The percentage of simulations with a small profit (0% to 30%).
• Percent Chance of Big Profit: The percentage of simulations with a big profit (greater than 30%).
• Average End Amount: The average final account value across all simulations.
• Average End PNL $: The average profit or loss in dollars across all simulations.
• Average End PNL %: The average profit or loss in percentage across all simulations.

Disclaimer: This is not trading or investing advice. These are estimated values only. Real results may differ, as this calculator does its best to measure probability.